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Nitra W vs Ružomberok W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nitra W
Nitra W
FT
3 – 4
Ružomberok W
Ružomberok W
10/10/2021I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 11Štadión pod Zoborom Vedľajšie Ihrisko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nitra W23%
×Draw18%
Ružomberok W59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra W
1.79
Ružomberok W
2.87

Ružomberok W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 65 away

creates per match

Nitra W
1.56
Ružomberok W
1.85

allows per match

Nitra W
3.88
Ružomberok W
2.03

finishing

Nitra W+0.00on par
Ružomberok W+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra W ↓

Ružomberok W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Nitra W or draw
41%
Nitra W or Ružomberok W
82%
Draw or Ružomberok W
77%

Winning margin

Nitra W wins by 2+
11%
Ružomberok W wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Nitra W 1+ goals
83%
Nitra W 2+ goals
53%
Nitra W 3+ goals
26%
Ružomberok W 1+ goals
94%
Ružomberok W 2+ goals
77%
Ružomberok W 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Nitra W (draw refunded)
28%
Ružomberok W (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.88 · 16 matches

Ružomberok W away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra W attack 1.56 + Ružomberok W defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ružomberok W attack 1.85 + Nitra W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Nitra W scores more
23%
level
18%
Ružomberok W scores more
59%

Ružomberok W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ružomberok W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Nitra W 3–4 Ružomberok W

Ružomberok W beat Nitra W 4-3 in I Liga - Women on October 10, 2021.

The match was played at Štadión pod Zoborom Vedľajšie Ihrisko in Nitra.