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Nitra W vs Dukla Banská Bystrica W — I Liga - Women 2020

Nitra W
Nitra W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
5/4/2022I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Relegation Round - 6Štadión pod Zoborom Vedľajšie Ihrisko

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nitra W44%
×Draw18%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra W
2.73
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
2.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nitra W
1.56
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
1.22

allows per match

Nitra W
3.88
Dukla Banská Bystrica W
3.89

finishing

Nitra W+0.00on par
Dukla Banská Bystrica W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

86%Yes
  • Yes86
  • No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra W ↓

Dukla Banská Bystrica W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
59%41%

Double chance

Nitra W or draw
62%
Nitra W or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
82%
Draw or Dukla Banská Bystrica W
56%

Winning margin

Nitra W wins by 2+
26%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nitra W 1+ goals
93%
Nitra W 2+ goals
75%
Nitra W 3+ goals
50%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 1+ goals
92%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 2+ goals
72%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Nitra W (draw refunded)
53%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
82%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra W at home — creates 1.56, concedes 3.88 · 16 matches

Dukla Banská Bystrica W away — creates 1.22, concedes 3.89 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra W attack 1.56 + Dukla Banská Bystrica W defence 3.89 → ÷2 → 2.73

Dukla Banská Bystrica W attack 1.22 + Nitra W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nitra W scores more
44%
level
18%
Dukla Banská Bystrica W scores more
38%

Nitra W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nitra W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Nitra W 0–3 Dukla Banská Bystrica W

Dukla Banská Bystrica W beat Nitra W 3-0 in I Liga - Women on May 4, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión pod Zoborom Vedľajšie Ihrisko in Nitra.