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Nitra vs Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II — 3. liga - West 2020

Nitra
Nitra
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
5/15/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 27Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nitra56%
×Draw21%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra
2.04
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
1.24

Nitra creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 25 away

creates per match

Nitra
1.53
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
0.72

allows per match

Nitra
1.76
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
2.56

finishing

Nitra+0.00on par
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra ↓

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nitra or draw
77%
Nitra or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
79%
Draw or Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II
44%

Winning margin

Nitra wins by 2+
33%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nitra 1+ goals
87%
Nitra 2+ goals
60%
Nitra 3+ goals
33%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 1+ goals
71%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 2+ goals
35%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nitra (draw refunded)
71%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II away — creates 0.72, concedes 2.56 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra attack 1.53 + Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.04

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II attack 0.72 + Nitra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Nitra scores more
56%
level
21%
Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II scores more
23%

Nitra at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Nitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Nitra 1–3 Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II

Zl. Moravce-Vrablé II beat Nitra 3-1 in 3. liga - West on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión pod Zoborom in Nitra.