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Nitra vs TEMPO Partizánske — 3. liga - West 2020

Nitra
Nitra
FT
3 – 0
TEMPO Partizánske
TEMPO Partizánske
3/6/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 33Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nitra54%
×Draw21%
TEMPO Partizánske25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra
2.09
TEMPO Partizánske
1.38

Nitra creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Nitra
1.53
TEMPO Partizánske
1.00

allows per match

Nitra
1.76
TEMPO Partizánske
2.65

finishing

Nitra+0.00on par
TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra ↓

TEMPO Partizánske →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Nitra or draw
75%
Nitra or TEMPO Partizánske
79%
Draw or TEMPO Partizánske
46%

Winning margin

Nitra wins by 2+
32%
TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nitra 1+ goals
88%
Nitra 2+ goals
62%
Nitra 3+ goals
34%
TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals
75%
TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals
40%
TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nitra (draw refunded)
68%
TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

TEMPO Partizánske away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra attack 1.53 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.09

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.00 + Nitra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nitra scores more
54%
level
21%
TEMPO Partizánske scores more
25%

Nitra at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Nitra 3–0 TEMPO Partizánske

Nitra beat TEMPO Partizánske 3-0 in 3. liga - West on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión pod Zoborom in Nitra.