Nitra 1–2 Nové Mesto nad Váhom: Result & Stats

Nitra

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

4/14/2022

3. liga - West · West - 23Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nitra43%

×Draw24%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NitraExpected goals in this matchNové Mesto nad Váhom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.42

Nitra

1.65

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.42

Nitra creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

1.53

creates per match

1.07

1.76

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Nitra

1.53

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.07

allows per match

Nitra

1.76

Nové Mesto nad Váhom

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nitra+0.00on par

Nové Mesto nad Váhom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra ↓

Nové Mesto nad Váhom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Nitra or draw

67%

Nitra or Nové Mesto nad Váhom

76%

Draw or Nové Mesto nad Váhom

57%

Winning margin

Nitra wins by 2+

22%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nitra 1+ goals

81%

Nitra 2+ goals

49%

Nitra 3+ goals

23%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 1+ goals

76%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 2+ goals

41%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nitra (draw refunded)

57%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Nové Mesto nad Váhom away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.76 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra attack 1.53 + Nové Mesto nad Váhom defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.65

Nové Mesto nad Váhom attack 1.07 + Nitra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nitra scores more

43%

level

24%

Nové Mesto nad Váhom scores more

33%

Nitra at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff