Nitra 1–0 Marcelová: Result & Stats

Nitra

FT

1 – 0

Marcelová

11/13/2021

3. liga - West · West - 15Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nitra44%

×Draw23%

Marcelová33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NitraExpected goals in this matchMarcelová

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.52

Nitra

1.79

Marcelová

1.52

Nitra creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

1.53

creates per match

1.29

1.76

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Nitra

1.53

Marcelová

1.29

allows per match

Nitra

1.76

Marcelová

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nitra+0.00on par

Marcelová+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra ↓

Marcelová →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Nitra or draw

67%

Nitra or Marcelová

77%

Draw or Marcelová

56%

Winning margin

Nitra wins by 2+

24%

Marcelová wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nitra 1+ goals

83%

Nitra 2+ goals

53%

Nitra 3+ goals

26%

Marcelová 1+ goals

78%

Marcelová 2+ goals

45%

Marcelová 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Nitra (draw refunded)

57%

Marcelová (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Marcelová away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.04 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra attack 1.53 + Marcelová defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.79

Marcelová attack 1.29 + Nitra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nitra scores more

44%

level

23%

Marcelová scores more

33%

Nitra at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff