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Nitra vs Lednické Rovne — 3. liga - West 2020

Nitra
Nitra
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Lednické Rovne
Lednické Rovne
5/29/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 29Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nitra45%
×Draw24%
Lednické Rovne31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra
1.62
Lednické Rovne
1.29

Nitra creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

creates per match

Nitra
1.53
Lednické Rovne
0.83

allows per match

Nitra
1.76
Lednické Rovne
1.71

finishing

Nitra+0.00on par
Lednické Rovne+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra ↓

Lednické Rovne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Nitra or draw
69%
Nitra or Lednické Rovne
76%
Draw or Lednické Rovne
55%

Winning margin

Nitra wins by 2+
23%
Lednické Rovne wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Nitra 1+ goals
80%
Nitra 2+ goals
48%
Nitra 3+ goals
22%
Lednické Rovne 1+ goals
72%
Lednické Rovne 2+ goals
37%
Lednické Rovne 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nitra (draw refunded)
60%
Lednické Rovne (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Lednické Rovne away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra attack 1.53 + Lednické Rovne defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.62

Lednické Rovne attack 0.83 + Nitra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nitra scores more
45%
level
24%
Lednické Rovne scores more
31%

Nitra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nitra vs Lednické Rovne

Lednické Rovne beat Nitra 4-0 in 3. liga - West on May 29, 2022.

The match was played at Štadión pod Zoborom in Nitra.