Nitra 1–3 Kalná nad Hronom: Result & Stats

Nitra

FT

1 – 3

Kalná nad Hronom

10/2/2021

3. liga - West · West - 9Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Nitra41%

×Draw24%

Kalná nad Hronom35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NitraExpected goals in this matchKalná nad Hronom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.43

Nitra

1.57

Kalná nad Hronom

1.43

Nitra creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 31 away

1.53

creates per match

1.10

1.76

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Nitra

1.53

Kalná nad Hronom

1.10

allows per match

Nitra

1.76

Kalná nad Hronom

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nitra+0.00on par

Kalná nad Hronom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra ↓

Kalná nad Hronom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Nitra or draw

65%

Nitra or Kalná nad Hronom

76%

Draw or Kalná nad Hronom

59%

Winning margin

Nitra wins by 2+

20%

Kalná nad Hronom wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Nitra 1+ goals

79%

Nitra 2+ goals

46%

Nitra 3+ goals

21%

Kalná nad Hronom 1+ goals

76%

Kalná nad Hronom 2+ goals

42%

Kalná nad Hronom 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nitra (draw refunded)

54%

Kalná nad Hronom (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Kalná nad Hronom away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.61 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra attack 1.53 + Kalná nad Hronom defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Kalná nad Hronom attack 1.10 + Nitra defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nitra scores more

41%

level

24%

Kalná nad Hronom scores more

35%

Nitra at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nitra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff