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Nitra II vs Galanta — 3. liga - West 2020

Nitra II
Nitra II
CANC
14:00
Galanta
Galanta
3/28/20213. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 18Štadión pod Zoborom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nitra II45%
×Draw21%
Galanta34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nitra II
2.02
Galanta
1.73

Nitra II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 85 away

creates per match

Nitra II
2.57
Galanta
1.32

allows per match

Nitra II
2.14
Galanta
1.48

finishing

Nitra II+0.00on par
Galanta+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nitra II ↓

Galanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Nitra II or draw
66%
Nitra II or Galanta
79%
Draw or Galanta
55%

Winning margin

Nitra II wins by 2+
25%
Galanta wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Nitra II 1+ goals
87%
Nitra II 2+ goals
60%
Nitra II 3+ goals
33%
Galanta 1+ goals
82%
Galanta 2+ goals
52%
Galanta 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Nitra II (draw refunded)
57%
Galanta (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nitra II at home — creates 2.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

Galanta away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.48 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nitra II attack 2.57 + Galanta defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 2.02

Galanta attack 1.32 + Nitra II defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nitra II scores more
45%
level
21%
Galanta scores more
34%

Nitra II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nitra II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Nitra II host Galanta

March 28, 2021: Nitra II take on Galanta in 3. liga - West. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Nitra II host Galanta at Štadión pod Zoborom.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.