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Niroye Zamini vs Shahre Raz — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shahre Raz
Shahre Raz
10/23/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 8Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Niroye Zamini40%
×Draw33%
Shahre Raz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
1.01
Shahre Raz
0.78

Niroye Zamini creates 29% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.76
Shahre Raz
0.65

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.90
Shahre Raz
1.26

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
Shahre Raz+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Shahre Raz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
73%
Niroye Zamini or Shahre Raz
67%
Draw or Shahre Raz
60%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
15%
Shahre Raz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
64%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
27%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
8%
Shahre Raz 1+ goals
54%
Shahre Raz 2+ goals
18%
Shahre Raz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
59%
Shahre Raz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Shahre Raz away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Shahre Raz defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.01

Shahre Raz attack 0.65 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
40%
level
33%
Shahre Raz scores more
27%

Niroye Zamini at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niroye Zamini vs Shahre Raz

Niroye Zamini beat Shahre Raz 1-0 in Azadegan League on October 23, 2024.

The match was played at Shahid Dastgerdi Stadium in Teheran.