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Niroye Zamini vs Sepidrood Rasht — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
1 – 2
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
8/27/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 3Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Niroye Zamini46%
×Draw31%
Sepidrood Rasht23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
1.18
Sepidrood Rasht
0.74

Niroye Zamini creates 59% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.76
Sepidrood Rasht
0.59

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.90
Sepidrood Rasht
1.59

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
77%
Niroye Zamini or Sepidrood Rasht
69%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
54%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
20%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
69%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
33%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
12%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
52%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
17%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
67%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.59 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
46%
level
31%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
23%

Niroye Zamini at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Niroye Zamini 1–2 Sepidrood Rasht

Sepidrood Rasht beat Niroye Zamini 2-1 in Azadegan League on August 27, 2019.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.