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Niroye Zamini vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
M. Bakhtiari 90'
8/29/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Niroye Zamini41%
×Draw35%
Navad Urmia23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
0.93
Navad Urmia
0.62

Niroye Zamini creates 50% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 46 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.77
Navad Urmia
0.39

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.85
Navad Urmia
1.09

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
77%
Niroye Zamini or Navad Urmia
65%
Draw or Navad Urmia
59%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
15%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
61%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
24%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
7%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
46%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
13%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
64%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.39, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.77 + Navad Urmia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Navad Urmia attack 0.39 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
41%
level
35%
Navad Urmia scores more
23%

Niroye Zamini at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
M. Bakhtiari

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Niroye Zamini vs Navad Urmia

Navad Urmia beat Niroye Zamini 1-0 in Azadegan League on August 29, 2025.

Goals: M. Bakhtiari (90').

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Tehrān (Teheran).