Niroye Zamini 2–1 Naft Gachsaran: Result & Stats

Niroye Zamini

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Gachsaran

O. Seydali 90'

A. Khodamoradi 80'

Unknown 83'

11/14/2025

Azadegan League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Niroye Zamini37%

×Draw33%

Naft Gachsaran30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niroye ZaminiExpected goals in this matchNaft Gachsaran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

0.82

Niroye Zamini

0.95

Naft Gachsaran

0.82

Niroye Zamini creates 16% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 51 away

0.77

creates per match

0.80

0.85

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Niroye Zamini

0.77

Naft Gachsaran

0.80

allows per match

Niroye Zamini

0.85

Naft Gachsaran

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Naft Gachsaran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw

70%

Niroye Zamini or Naft Gachsaran

67%

Draw or Naft Gachsaran

63%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+

14%

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals

61%

Niroye Zamini 2+ goals

25%

Niroye Zamini 3+ goals

7%

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals

56%

Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals

20%

Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)

55%

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.77, concedes 0.85 · 47 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.77 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more

37%

level

33%

Naft Gachsaran scores more

30%

Niroye Zamini at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

80'

A. Khodamoradi

83'

90'

O. Seydali

Niroye

Naft

Manager: A. Rouzbehani

Manager: A. Sanjari