Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Niroye Zamini vs Khooshe Talaee Saveh — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
0 – 1
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
8/17/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 1Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Niroye Zamini38%
×Draw33%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
0.96
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.81

Niroye Zamini creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 82 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.75
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
0.77

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.85
Khooshe Talaee Saveh
1.17

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
Khooshe Talaee Saveh+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Khooshe Talaee Saveh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
71%
Niroye Zamini or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
67%
Draw or Khooshe Talaee Saveh
62%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
14%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
62%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
25%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
7%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 1+ goals
56%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 2+ goals
19%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
56%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.85 · 48 matches

Khooshe Talaee Saveh away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.75 + Khooshe Talaee Saveh defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Khooshe Talaee Saveh attack 0.77 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
38%
level
33%
Khooshe Talaee Saveh scores more
29%

Niroye Zamini at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Niroye Zamini 0–1 Khooshe Talaee Saveh

Khooshe Talaee Saveh beat Niroye Zamini 1-0 in Azadegan League on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.