Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Niroye Zamini vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
FT
1 – 0
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
A. Khodadadi 46' (pen)
11/9/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 12Ghadir Tehran Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Niroye Zamini41%
×Draw31%
Arman Gohar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niroye Zamini
1.11
Arman Gohar
0.88

Niroye Zamini creates 26% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 67 away

creates per match

Niroye Zamini
0.76
Arman Gohar
0.87

allows per match

Niroye Zamini
0.88
Arman Gohar
1.46

finishing

Niroye Zamini+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niroye Zamini ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Niroye Zamini or draw
71%
Niroye Zamini or Arman Gohar
69%
Draw or Arman Gohar
59%

Winning margin

Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
17%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
67%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
30%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
10%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
59%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
22%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
59%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niroye Zamini at home — creates 0.76, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niroye Zamini attack 0.76 + Arman Gohar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.11

Arman Gohar attack 0.87 + Niroye Zamini defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Niroye Zamini scores more
41%
level
31%
Arman Gohar scores more
29%

Niroye Zamini at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Niroye Zamini will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
A. KhodadadiPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Niroye Zamini 1–0 Arman Gohar

Niroye Zamini beat Arman Gohar 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 9, 2019.

Goals: A. Khodadadi (46' pen).

The match was played at Ghadir Tehran Stadium in Tehran.