Niort 1–3 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Sochaux

Joseph Mendes 31'

G. Weissbeck 84' (pen)

A. Niane 29'

S. Ambri 12'

3/2/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 28Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort34%

×Draw29%

Sochaux36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.12

Niort

1.08

Sochaux

1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

1.09

creates per match

1.02

1.22

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Sochaux

1.02

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Niort or draw

64%

Niort or Sochaux

71%

Draw or Sochaux

66%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

14%

Sochaux wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

66%

Niort 2+ goals

29%

Niort 3+ goals

10%

Sochaux 1+ goals

67%

Sochaux 2+ goals

31%

Sochaux 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

49%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sochaux attack 1.02 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Niort scores more

34%

level

29%

Sochaux scores more

36%

Sochaux at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

G. Weissbeck

Sochaux · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

S. Ambri↳ G. Weissbeck

19'

S. Daham← R. Ndiaye

29'

A. Niane

31'

Joseph Mendes↳ P. Bâ

46'

B. Doukansy← Y. Bourhane

46'

J. Moutachy← G. Kilama

54'

Steve Ambri

58'

Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni

63'

V. Jacob← Joseph Mendes

63'

F. Ourega← S. Ambri

71'

C. Bedia← A. Niane

71'

B. Soumaré← A. Virginius

73'

Gaetan Weissbeck

74'

Valentin Jacob

83'

Mathieu Michel

84'

G. WeissbeckPenalty

85'

T. Lebeau← B. Doukansy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortSochaux

Overview

48%Possession52%

5Total Shots14

0Corners7

14Fouls22

Shots

5Total Shots14

3On Target5

2Off Target5

0Blocked4

1Inside Box10

4Outside Box4

Passing

48%Possession52%

371Total Passes379

268Accurate Passes299

72%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls22

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Ligue 2: Niort 1–3 Sochaux

Sochaux beat Niort 3-1 in Ligue 2 on March 2, 2021.

Goals: S. Ambri (12'), A. Niane (29'), Joseph Mendes (31'), G. Weissbeck (84' pen).

Sochaux controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Niort 1–3 Sochaux