Niort 0–2 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sochaux

J. Livolant 64'

V. Glaentzlin 60'

11/2/2019

Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade René Gaillard (Niort)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort35%

×Draw29%

Sochaux37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.13

Niort

1.09

Sochaux

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 91 away

1.10

creates per match

1.02

1.24

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Niort

1.10

Sochaux

1.02

allows per match

Niort

1.24

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Niort or draw

63%

Niort or Sochaux

71%

Draw or Sochaux

65%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

14%

Sochaux wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

66%

Niort 2+ goals

30%

Niort 3+ goals

10%

Sochaux 1+ goals

68%

Sochaux 2+ goals

31%

Sochaux 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

49%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Sochaux away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.08 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.10 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sochaux attack 1.02 + Niort defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Niort scores more

35%

level

29%

Sochaux scores more

37%

Sochaux at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sochaux will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

O. Thioune

Sochaux · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

Bryan Passi

28'

Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni

60'

V. Glaentzlin↳ S. Daham

63'

Gaetan Weissbeck

64'

T. Touré← V. Glaentzlin

64'

J. Livolant↳ O. Thioune

67'

Q. Braat← S. Allagbé

68'

A. Baroan← T. Vion

77'

J. Pendant← J. Livolant

79'

Z. Koné← A. Leautey

89'

S. Diop← O. Thioune

90'

Antoine Baroan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortSochaux

Overview

61%Possession39%

9Total Shots15

5Corners7

19Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots15

1On Target6

5Off Target5

3Blocked4

5Inside Box8

4Outside Box7

Passing

61%Possession39%

454Total Passes277

340Accurate Passes185

75%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Ligue 2: Niort 0–2 Sochaux

Sochaux beat Niort 2-0 in Ligue 2 on November 2, 2019.

Goals: V. Glaentzlin (60'), J. Livolant (64').

Niort controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard (Niort) in Niort.

Niort vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Niort 0–2 Sochaux