Niort 0–1 Le Havre: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Le Havre

V. Lekhal 54' (pen)

9/10/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort32%

×Draw29%

Le Havre39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchLe Havre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.17

Niort

1.02

Le Havre

1.17

Le Havre creates 15% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 93 away

1.09

creates per match

1.12

1.22

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Le Havre

1.12

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Le Havre

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Le Havre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Le Havre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Niort or draw

61%

Niort or Le Havre

71%

Draw or Le Havre

68%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

12%

Le Havre wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

64%

Niort 2+ goals

27%

Niort 3+ goals

8%

Le Havre 1+ goals

69%

Le Havre 2+ goals

33%

Le Havre 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

45%

Le Havre (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Le Havre away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.94 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Le Havre defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Le Havre attack 1.12 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niort scores more

32%

level

29%

Le Havre scores more

39%

Le Havre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Le Havre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

N. Alioui

Le Havre · F

7.5

Match Events

31'

Lenny Vallier

53'

Bryan Passi

54'

V. LekhalPenalty

66'

A. Confais← Y. Kechta

66'

J. Casimir← Q. Cornette

71'

Y. Gomes← Y. Kitala

74'

J. Olaitan← Ibrahima Sory Conté II

74'

Y. Cassubie← S. Renel

79'

Amir Richardson

83'

I. Bakayoko← L. Vallier

86'

N. Mbemba← N. Alioui

86'

E. Mahmoud← A. Richardson

90+2'

Guy-Marcelin Kilama

90+3'

Alois Confais

90'

Elies Mahmoud

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortLe

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots6

6Corners4

13Fouls18

Shots

9Total Shots6

1On Target1

6Off Target4

2Blocked1

6Inside Box5

3Outside Box1

Passing

43%Possession57%

370Total Passes493

289Accurate Passes415

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls18

3Yellow Cards3

6Offsides2

Niort 0 – 1 Le Havre

Le Havre beat Niort 1-0 in Ligue 2 on September 10, 2022.

Goals: V. Lekhal (54' pen).

Le Havre controlled possession (57%) and registered 6 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Le Havre — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Niort 0 – 1 Le Havre