Niort 0–2 Guingamp: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Guingamp

T. Muyumba 90+2'

Y. Gomis 39' (pen)

5/15/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 38Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort35%

×Draw28%

Guingamp37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchGuingamp

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.23

Niort

1.18

Guingamp

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 125 away

1.09

creates per match

1.24

1.22

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Guingamp

1.24

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Guingamp

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Guingamp+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Guingamp →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw

63%

Niort or Guingamp

72%

Draw or Guingamp

65%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

15%

Guingamp wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

69%

Niort 2+ goals

33%

Niort 3+ goals

12%

Guingamp 1+ goals

71%

Guingamp 2+ goals

35%

Guingamp 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

48%

Guingamp (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Guingamp away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Guingamp defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Guingamp attack 1.24 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Niort scores more

35%

level

28%

Guingamp scores more

37%

Guingamp at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guingamp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

L. Palun

Guingamp · D

7.9

Match Events

39'

Y. GomisPenalty

46'

D. Yongwa← I. Conté

46'

B. Boutobba← B. Doukansy

55'

Yacine Bourhane

56'

T. Muyumba← E. Ba

66'

L. Ameka← L. Vallier

69'

J. Livolant← Y. Gomis

70'

M. Phaeton← F. Pierrot

74'

B. Matufueni M'bondo← B. Passi

80'

G. Fofana← R. Rodelin

81'

Louis Ameka Autchanga

81'

Dylan Louiserre

86'

Tristan Muyumba

89'

B. Konaté← J. Moutachy

90+2'

T. Muyumba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortGuingamp

Overview

38%Possession62%

16Total Shots9

3Corners1

15Fouls18

Shots

16Total Shots9

1On Target4

11Off Target4

4Blocked1

9Inside Box7

7Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

375Total Passes637

306Accurate Passes568

82%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

15Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1