Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Niort vs Grenoble — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Grenoble
Grenoble
L. Ameka 72'
F. Sotoca 65'
1/19/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 21Stade René-Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Niort39%
×Draw28%
Grenoble33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.20
Grenoble
1.09

Niort creates 10% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 145 away

creates per match

Niort
1.10
Grenoble
0.94

allows per match

Niort
1.24
Grenoble
1.30

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Grenoble+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Grenoble →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Niort or draw
67%
Niort or Grenoble
72%
Draw or Grenoble
61%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
16%
Grenoble wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
70%
Niort 2+ goals
34%
Niort 3+ goals
12%
Grenoble 1+ goals
66%
Grenoble 2+ goals
30%
Grenoble 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
54%
Grenoble (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Grenoble away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.30 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.10 + Grenoble defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Grenoble attack 0.94 + Niort defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niort scores more
39%
level
28%
Grenoble scores more
33%

Niort at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
D. LouiserreNiortNiort · M
7.4

Match Events

37'
Romain Grange
48'
Harouna Abou Demba
64'
Y. Brun← M. Chergui
65'
A. Elogo← I. Coulibaly
65'
F. Sotoca
71'
L. Ameka← D. Djigla
72'
L. Ameka
79'
N. Belvito← R. Grange
81'
A. Dabasse← V. Jacob
87'
A. Baroan← A. Leautey

Possession

55%Niort

Shots

16Niort

Pass accuracy

53%Niort

Statistics

NiortGrenoble
Overview
55%Possession45%
16Total Shots8
3Corners1
11Fouls7
Shots
16Total Shots8
6On Target1
4Off Target5
6Blocked2
8Inside Box4
8Outside Box4
Passing
55%Possession45%
467Total Passes387
369Accurate Passes276
79%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
0Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls7
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Niort vs Grenoble

Niort and Grenoble drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on January 19, 2019.

Goals: F. Sotoca (65'), L. Ameka (72').

Niort controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade René-Gaillard in Niort.