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Grenoble vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Grenoble
Grenoble
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Niort
Niort
J. Correa 90'
A. Sanyang 30'
4/29/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 33Stade des Alpes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Grenoble48%
×Draw28%
Niort24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grenoble
1.37
Niort
0.89

Grenoble creates 54% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 91 away

creates per match

Grenoble
1.19
Niort
0.84

allows per match

Grenoble
0.93
Niort
1.55

finishing

Grenoble+0.00on par
Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grenoble ↓

Niort →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Grenoble or draw
76%
Grenoble or Niort
72%
Draw or Niort
52%

Winning margin

Grenoble wins by 2+
23%
Niort wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Grenoble 1+ goals
75%
Grenoble 2+ goals
40%
Grenoble 3+ goals
16%
Niort 1+ goals
59%
Niort 2+ goals
22%
Niort 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grenoble (draw refunded)
66%
Niort (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grenoble at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grenoble attack 1.19 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.37

Niort attack 0.84 + Grenoble defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Grenoble scores more
48%
level
28%
Niort scores more
24%

Grenoble at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Grenoble will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
A. SanyangGrenobleGrenoble · M
7.9

Match Events

30'
A. Sanyang↳ M. Phaëton
53'
A. Sagna← G. Bentil
63'
O. Ngom← C. Kaboré
70'
Quentin Bernard
71'
A. Ngando← A. Sbaï
73'
Y. Merdji← N. Elphege
75'
J. Correa← P. Ba
81'
G. Paquiez← A. Mendy
90'
J. Correa↳ L. Nestor

Possession

50%Grenoble

Shots

18Grenoble

Pass accuracy

50%Grenoble

Statistics

GrenobleNiort
Overview
50%Possession50%
18Total Shots8
5Corners6
17Fouls7
Shots
18Total Shots8
8On Target4
5Off Target3
5Blocked1
10Inside Box5
8Outside Box3
Passing
50%Possession50%
430Total Passes439
359Accurate Passes369
83%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
17Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides5

Ligue 2: Grenoble 2–0 Niort

Grenoble beat Niort 2-0 in Ligue 2 on April 29, 2023.

Goals: A. Sanyang (30'), J. Correa (90').

Grenoble controlled possession (50%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade des Alpes in Grenoble.