Niort 2–1 Dijon: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dijon

I. Conté 90+3'

B. Boutobba 90'

R. Assalé 52'

10/22/2022

Ligue 2 · Round 13Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Niort39%

×Draw28%

Dijon34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchDijon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.14

Niort

1.24

Dijon

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 38 away

1.09

creates per match

1.05

1.22

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Dijon

1.05

allows per match

Niort

1.22

Dijon

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Dijon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Dijon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Niort or draw

66%

Niort or Dijon

72%

Draw or Dijon

61%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

17%

Dijon wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

71%

Niort 2+ goals

35%

Niort 3+ goals

13%

Dijon 1+ goals

68%

Dijon 2+ goals

32%

Dijon 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

53%

Dijon (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Dijon away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.39 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Dijon defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.24

Dijon attack 1.05 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niort scores more

39%

level

28%

Dijon scores more

34%

Niort at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Sagna

Niort · M

7.3

Match Events

9'

Bradley Matufueni M'bondo

52'

R. Assalé↳ M. Le Bihan

62'

Amadou Sagna

63'

K. Rocheteau← Y. Merdji

63'

S. Benchamma← S. Renel

76'

Xande Silva

81'

J. Olaitan← D. Durivaux

84'

L. Tchaouna← M. Le Bihan

84'

B. Soumaré← L. Deaux

89'

Junior Olaitan

89'

M. Ahlinvi← R. Assalé

90+1'

Bilal Boutobba

90'

B. Boutobba

90+3'

I. Conté

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortDijon

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots9

5Corners6

12Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots9

5On Target3

3Off Target5

3Blocked1

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

331Total Passes482

261Accurate Passes389

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls10

4Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0

Ligue 2: Niort 2–1 Dijon

Niort beat Dijon 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 22, 2022.

Goals: R. Assalé (52'), B. Boutobba (90'), I. Conté (90+3').

Dijon controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Dijon — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Niort 2–1 Dijon