Niort 3–0 Caen: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Niort

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Caen

V. Jacob 80'

Y. Bourhane 68'

P. Bâ 16'

10/17/2020

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Niort40%

×Draw27%

Caen33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NiortExpected goals in this matchCaen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.17

Niort

1.31

Caen

1.17

Niort creates 12% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 107 away

1.09

creates per match

1.10

1.23

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Niort

1.09

Caen

1.10

allows per match

Niort

1.23

Caen

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niort+0.00on par

Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Caen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Niort or draw

67%

Niort or Caen

73%

Draw or Caen

60%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+

18%

Caen wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals

73%

Niort 2+ goals

38%

Niort 3+ goals

14%

Caen 1+ goals

69%

Caen 2+ goals

33%

Caen 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)

55%

Caen (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 92 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Caen attack 1.10 + Niort defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Niort scores more

40%

level

27%

Caen scores more

33%

Niort at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

V. Jacob

Niort · M

8.0

Match Events

-5'

Quentin Bena

16'

P. Bâ

56'

Joris Moutachy

65'

Y. Bourhane← B. Doukansy

68'

Y. Bourhane↳ B. Boutobba

69'

A. Mendy← Y. Court

74'

C. Zady Sery← K. Nsona

74'

A. Gonçalves← H. Vandermersch

75'

A. Baroan← B. Boutobba

80'

V. Jacob

81'

B. Jeannot← Y. Bammou

81'

J. Pi← J. Deminguet

87'

L. Vallier← V. Jacob

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NiortCaen

Overview

46%Possession54%

18Total Shots9

2Corners1

20Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots9

7On Target3

8Off Target4

3Blocked2

7Inside Box5

11Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

376Total Passes424

257Accurate Passes308

68%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

20Fouls12

2Yellow Cards0

Ligue 2: Niort 3–0 Caen

Niort beat Caen 3-0 in Ligue 2 on October 17, 2020.

Goals: P. Bâ (16'), Y. Bourhane (68'), V. Jacob (80').

Caen controlled possession (54%) and registered 9 shots to 18.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.

Niort vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Niort 3–0 Caen