Caen 1–0 Niort: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Caen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Niort

A. Weber 74'

2/13/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade Michel d'Ornano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Caen48%

×Draw27%

Niort25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaenExpected goals in this matchNiort

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.92

Caen

1.40

Niort

0.92

Caen creates 52% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 93 away

1.25

creates per match

0.84

1.00

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Caen

1.25

Niort

0.84

allows per match

Caen

1.00

Niort

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caen+0.00on par

Niort+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caen ↓

Niort →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Caen or draw

75%

Caen or Niort

73%

Draw or Niort

52%

Winning margin

Caen wins by 2+

23%

Niort wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Caen 1+ goals

75%

Caen 2+ goals

41%

Caen 3+ goals

17%

Niort 1+ goals

60%

Niort 2+ goals

23%

Niort 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Caen (draw refunded)

66%

Niort (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caen at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 107 matches

Niort away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.55 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caen attack 1.25 + Niort defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.40

Niort attack 0.84 + Caen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Caen scores more

48%

level

27%

Niort scores more

25%

Caen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Caen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. Weber

Caen · D

7.9

Match Events

46'

Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni

50'

Hugo Vandermersch

58'

Yoann Court

72'

C. Zady Sery← Y. Court

72'

N. Gioacchini← Alexandre Mendy

74'

A. Weber

77'

T. Lebeau← Y. Bourhane

80'

L. Ameka← B. Doukansy

80'

Joseph Mendes← V. Jacob

81'

Tom Lebeau

88'

A. Traore← Y. Bammou

89'

Y. Armougom← S. Yago

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CaenNiort

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots7

3Corners1

19Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots7

3On Target1

5Off Target4

4Blocked2

9Inside Box2

3Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

337Total Passes408

251Accurate Passes326

74%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2

Ligue 2: Caen 1–0 Niort

Caen beat Niort 1-0 in Ligue 2 on February 13, 2021.

Goals: A. Weber (74').

Niort controlled possession (55%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stade Michel d'Ornano in Caen.

Caen vs Niort — Ligue 2 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Ligue 2: Caen 1–0 Niort