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Niort vs Caen — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Caen
Caen
I. Sissoko 53' (pen)
B. Sankoh 6'
8/23/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade René Gaillard (Niort)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort40%
×Draw27%
Caen33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.31
Caen
1.16

Niort creates 13% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 107 away

creates per match

Niort
1.09
Caen
1.10

allows per match

Niort
1.22
Caen
1.53

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Caen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Caen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw
67%
Niort or Caen
73%
Draw or Caen
60%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
18%
Caen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
73%
Niort 2+ goals
38%
Niort 3+ goals
14%
Caen 1+ goals
69%
Caen 2+ goals
32%
Caen 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
55%
Caen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Caen away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.53 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Caen defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.31

Caen attack 1.10 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Niort scores more
40%
level
27%
Caen scores more
33%

Niort at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
A. GonçalvesCaenCaen · D
7.9

Match Events

6'
B. Sankoh↳ A. Gonçalves
52'
Hugo Vandermersch
53'
I. SissokoPenalty
81'
E. Joseph← M. Tchokounté

Possession

46%Niort

Shots

11Niort

Pass accuracy

48%Niort

Statistics

NiortCaen
Overview
46%Possession54%
11Total Shots12
5Corners3
15Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots12
3On Target4
4Off Target7
4Blocked1
4Inside Box9
7Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
352Total Passes410
263Accurate Passes336
75%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
15Fouls15
0Yellow Cards1

Niort 1 – 1 Caen

Niort and Caen drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on August 23, 2019.

Goals: B. Sankoh (6'), I. Sissoko (53' pen).

Caen controlled possession (54%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard (Niort) in Niort.