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Niort vs Beziers — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Beziers
Beziers
3/1/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 27Stade René-Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Niort42%
×Draw27%
Beziers32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.36
Beziers
1.15

Niort creates 18% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 19 away

creates per match

Niort
1.10
Beziers
1.05

allows per match

Niort
1.24
Beziers
1.63

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Beziers+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Beziers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Niort or draw
68%
Niort or Beziers
73%
Draw or Beziers
58%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
19%
Beziers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
74%
Niort 2+ goals
39%
Niort 3+ goals
16%
Beziers 1+ goals
68%
Beziers 2+ goals
32%
Beziers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
57%
Beziers (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.24 · 93 matches

Beziers away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.10 + Beziers defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Beziers attack 1.05 + Niort defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Niort scores more
42%
level
27%
Beziers scores more
32%

Niort at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
T. VionNiortNiort · F
8.1

Match Events

13'
Yacine Bourhane
23'
Ousmane Sidibe
45'
Julien Cétout
62'
Dorian Bertrand
64'
A. Nouri← E. Banda
65'
Faycal Rherras
68'
B. Konaté← Y. Bourhane
69'
L. Ameka← D. Djigla
73'
A. Denkey← A. Ramalingom
80'
R. Aabid← J. Cétout
86'
Z. Koné← A. Leautey
90'
Rayane Aabid

Possession

54%Niort

Shots

14Niort

Pass accuracy

53%Niort

Statistics

NiortBeziers
Overview
54%Possession46%
14Total Shots8
4Corners6
12Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots8
3On Target3
8Off Target5
3Blocked0
8Inside Box2
6Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
434Total Passes368
344Accurate Passes262
79%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls17
1Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Niort 0 – 0 Beziers

Niort and Beziers drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on March 1, 2019.

Niort controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stade René-Gaillard in Niort.