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Niort vs Auxerre — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Auxerre
Auxerre
A. Coeff 76'
G. Hein 69'
G. Lloris 59', 35'
4/10/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort34%
×Draw28%
Auxerre39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.15
Auxerre
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 91 away

creates per match

Niort
1.09
Auxerre
1.29

allows per match

Niort
1.22
Auxerre
1.20

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Auxerre+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Auxerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw
61%
Niort or Auxerre
72%
Draw or Auxerre
66%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
14%
Auxerre wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
68%
Niort 2+ goals
32%
Niort 3+ goals
11%
Auxerre 1+ goals
71%
Auxerre 2+ goals
36%
Auxerre 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
47%
Auxerre (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Auxerre away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Auxerre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Auxerre attack 1.29 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niort scores more
34%
level
28%
Auxerre scores more
39%

Auxerre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
G. LlorisAuxerreAuxerre · D
9.2

Match Events

35'
G. Lloris↳ H. Sakhi
59'
G. Lloris↳ A. Coeff
67'
T. Lebeau← Y. Bourhane
68'
F. Bellugou← R. Dugimont
69'
G. Hein
76'
A. Coeff↳ H. Sakhi
78'
Joseph Mendes← B. Passi
78'
B. Doukansy← D. Louiserre
78'
G. Kilama← P. Bâ
83'
O. Camara← A. Coeff
83'
Y. Begraoui← G. Hein
90+1'
L. Sinayoko← H. Sakhi
90+1'
K. Boto← M. Autret

Possession

47%Niort

Shots

14Niort

Pass accuracy

51%Niort

Statistics

NiortAuxerre
Overview
47%Possession53%
14Total Shots15
5Corners9
10Fouls13
Shots
14Total Shots15
3On Target9
6Off Target4
5Blocked2
9Inside Box10
5Outside Box5
Passing
47%Possession53%
387Total Passes426
292Accurate Passes311
75%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls13
5Offsides2

Niort 0 – 4 Auxerre

Auxerre beat Niort 4-0 in Ligue 2 on April 10, 2021.

Goals: G. Lloris (35', 59'), G. Hein (69'), A. Coeff (76').

Auxerre controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.