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Niort vs Auxerre — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Auxerre
Auxerre
4/12/2019Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 32Stade René-Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Niort33%
×Draw27%
Auxerre39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.16
Auxerre
1.29

Auxerre creates 11% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 91 away

creates per match

Niort
1.11
Auxerre
1.29

allows per match

Niort
1.28
Auxerre
1.20

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Auxerre+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Auxerre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Niort or draw
61%
Niort or Auxerre
73%
Draw or Auxerre
67%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
14%
Auxerre wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
69%
Niort 2+ goals
32%
Niort 3+ goals
11%
Auxerre 1+ goals
72%
Auxerre 2+ goals
37%
Auxerre 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
46%
Auxerre (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Auxerre away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.20 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.11 + Auxerre defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Auxerre attack 1.29 + Niort defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Niort scores more
33%
level
27%
Auxerre scores more
39%

Auxerre at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Auxerre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Niort 0–0 Auxerre

Niort and Auxerre drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on April 12, 2019.

The match was played at Stade René-Gaillard in Niort.