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Niort vs Annecy — Ligue 2 2018

Niort
Niort
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Annecy
Annecy
A. Sagna 58'
M. Zemzemi 49'
M. Sahi 64', 16'
5/20/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 36Stade René Gaillard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Niort38%
×Draw27%
Annecy35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niort
1.28
Annecy
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 72 away

creates per match

Niort
1.09
Annecy
1.24

allows per match

Niort
1.22
Annecy
1.47

finishing

Niort+0.00on par
Annecy+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niort ↓

Annecy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Niort or draw
65%
Niort or Annecy
73%
Draw or Annecy
62%

Winning margin

Niort wins by 2+
17%
Annecy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Niort 1+ goals
72%
Niort 2+ goals
37%
Niort 3+ goals
14%
Annecy 1+ goals
71%
Annecy 2+ goals
35%
Annecy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Niort (draw refunded)
52%
Annecy (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niort at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

Annecy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.47 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niort attack 1.09 + Annecy defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Annecy attack 1.24 + Niort defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Niort scores more
38%
level
27%
Annecy scores more
35%

Niort at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Niort will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
M. ZemzemiNiortNiort · M
8.3

Match Events

16'
M. Sahi↳ Y. Demoncy
49'
M. Zemzemi↳ R. Bakayoko
52'
Vincent Pajot
58'
A. Sagna↳ B. Boutobba
64'
M. Sahi↳ S. Shamal
70'
K. Testud← A. Temanfo
70'
A. Bosetti← J. Rocchi
72'
G. Bentil← R. Bakayoko
78'
S. Benchamma← S. Renel
78'
J. Olaitan← C. Kaboré
82'
Y. Merdji← A. Sagna
82'
T. Tormin← B. Boutobba
82'
K. Faradé← M. Sahi
90+4'
Yanis Merdji
90+4'
Kevin Farade

Possession

57%Niort

Shots

10Niort

Pass accuracy

51%Niort

Statistics

NiortAnnecy
Overview
57%Possession43%
10Total Shots15
6Corners8
8Fouls17
Shots
10Total Shots15
3On Target6
6Off Target5
1Blocked4
6Inside Box13
4Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
523Total Passes392
417Accurate Passes301
80%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls17
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

Ligue 2: Niort 2–2 Annecy

Niort and Annecy drew 2-2 in Ligue 2 on May 20, 2023.

Goals: M. Sahi (16', 64'), M. Zemzemi (49'), A. Sagna (58').

Niort controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 15.

The match was played at Stade René Gaillard in Niort.