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Nimes vs Rodez — Ligue 2 2018

Nimes
Nimes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rodez
Rodez
E. Ómarsson 63'
8/13/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 3Stade des Costières

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Nimes38%
×Draw27%
Rodez36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nimes
1.29
Rodez
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 122 away

creates per match

Nimes
1.25
Rodez
1.11

allows per match

Nimes
1.38
Rodez
1.34

finishing

Nimes+0.00on par
Rodez+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimes ↓

Rodez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nimes or draw
64%
Nimes or Rodez
73%
Draw or Rodez
62%

Winning margin

Nimes wins by 2+
17%
Rodez wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nimes 1+ goals
72%
Nimes 2+ goals
37%
Nimes 3+ goals
14%
Rodez 1+ goals
71%
Rodez 2+ goals
36%
Rodez 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nimes (draw refunded)
51%
Rodez (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimes at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 40 matches

Rodez away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.34 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimes attack 1.25 + Rodez defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.29

Rodez attack 1.11 + Nimes defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nimes scores more
38%
level
27%
Rodez scores more
36%

Nimes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nimes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. VargasNimesNimes · D
8.2

Match Events

34'
Remy Boissier
50'
Loris Mouyokolo
56'
Y. Benrahou← J. Thomasen
63'
E. Ómarsson
64'
M. Koné← E. Ómarsson
72'
G. Coelho← A. Abdallah
72'
C. Dépres← L. Rajot
72'
H. Far← A. Valério
83'
R. Labonne← M. Tchokounté
83'
P. Burner← S. Sadzoute
83'
N. Savignac← N. Ouammou
88'
Plamedi Buni Jorge← R. Boissier
90+1'
Kelyan Guessoum

Possession

51%Nimes

Shots

15Nimes

Pass accuracy

51%Nimes

Statistics

NimesRodez
Overview
51%Possession49%
15Total Shots14
3Corners4
7Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots14
5On Target3
8Off Target10
2Blocked1
12Inside Box7
3Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
441Total Passes429
384Accurate Passes361
87%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Nimes vs Rodez

Nimes beat Rodez 1-0 in Ligue 2 on August 13, 2022.

Goals: E. Ómarsson (63').

Nimes controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stade des Costières in Nîmes.