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Nimes vs CA Bastia — Ligue 2 2010

Nimes
Nimes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
CA Bastia
CA Bastia
V. Le Mat 28'
11/8/2013Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 14Stade des Costières

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nimes60%
×Draw24%
CA Bastia16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nimes
1.64
CA Bastia
0.71

Nimes creates 131% more chances

Season form · 170 home / 19 away

creates per match

Nimes
1.48
CA Bastia
0.32

allows per match

Nimes
1.09
CA Bastia
1.79

finishing

Nimes+0.00on par
CA Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimes ↓

CA Bastia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nimes or draw
84%
Nimes or CA Bastia
76%
Draw or CA Bastia
40%

Winning margin

Nimes wins by 2+
33%
CA Bastia wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nimes 1+ goals
81%
Nimes 2+ goals
49%
Nimes 3+ goals
23%
CA Bastia 1+ goals
51%
CA Bastia 2+ goals
16%
CA Bastia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nimes (draw refunded)
79%
CA Bastia (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimes at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.09 · 170 matches

CA Bastia away — creates 0.32, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimes attack 1.48 + CA Bastia defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

CA Bastia attack 0.32 + Nimes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Nimes scores more
60%
level
24%
CA Bastia scores more
16%

Nimes at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Nimes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
V. Le Mat

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Nimes 0–1 CA Bastia

CA Bastia beat Nimes 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 8, 2013.

Goals: V. Le Mat (28').

The match was played at Stade des Costières in Nîmes.