Nimba United 1–1 NPA Anchors: Result & Stats

Nimba United

FT

1 – 1

NPA Anchors

2/3/2021

LFA First Division · Round 7North Star Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Nimba United50%

×Draw25%

NPA Anchors25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nimba UnitedExpected goals in this matchNPA Anchors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.03

Nimba United

1.57

NPA Anchors

1.03

Nimba United creates 52% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 24 away

0.94

creates per match

0.83

1.23

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Nimba United

0.94

NPA Anchors

0.83

allows per match

Nimba United

1.23

NPA Anchors

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nimba United+0.00on par

NPA Anchors+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba United ↓

NPA Anchors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nimba United or draw

75%

Nimba United or NPA Anchors

75%

Draw or NPA Anchors

50%

Winning margin

Nimba United wins by 2+

26%

NPA Anchors wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nimba United 1+ goals

79%

Nimba United 2+ goals

46%

Nimba United 3+ goals

21%

NPA Anchors 1+ goals

64%

NPA Anchors 2+ goals

28%

NPA Anchors 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nimba United (draw refunded)

67%

NPA Anchors (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

NPA Anchors away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba United attack 0.94 + NPA Anchors defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

NPA Anchors attack 0.83 + Nimba United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nimba United scores more

50%

level

25%

NPA Anchors scores more

25%

Nimba United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nimba United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff