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Nimba United vs Nimba Kwado — LFA First Division 2020

Nimba United
Nimba United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nimba Kwado
Nimba Kwado
1/30/2022LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 11North Star Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Nimba United34%
×Draw28%
Nimba Kwado38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nimba United
1.12
Nimba Kwado
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 50 away

creates per match

Nimba United
0.94
Nimba Kwado
1.16

allows per match

Nimba United
1.23
Nimba Kwado
1.30

finishing

Nimba United+0.00on par
Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba United ↓

Nimba Kwado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nimba United or draw
62%
Nimba United or Nimba Kwado
72%
Draw or Nimba Kwado
66%

Winning margin

Nimba United wins by 2+
14%
Nimba Kwado wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Nimba United 1+ goals
67%
Nimba United 2+ goals
31%
Nimba United 3+ goals
10%
Nimba Kwado 1+ goals
70%
Nimba Kwado 2+ goals
33%
Nimba Kwado 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nimba United (draw refunded)
48%
Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba United at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

Nimba Kwado away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.30 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba United attack 0.94 + Nimba Kwado defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.12

Nimba Kwado attack 1.16 + Nimba United defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nimba United scores more
34%
level
28%
Nimba Kwado scores more
38%

Nimba Kwado at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nimba United vs Nimba Kwado

Nimba Kwado beat Nimba United 1-0 in LFA First Division on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at North Star Sports Stadium in Mount Barclay.