Nimba Kwado 0–1 Paynesville: Result & Stats

Nimba Kwado

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Paynesville

12/14/2023

LFA First Division · Round 5Tomah Seh Floyd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Nimba Kwado42%

×Draw27%

Paynesville31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nimba KwadoExpected goals in this matchPaynesville

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Nimba Kwado

1.35

Paynesville

1.11

Nimba Kwado creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 40 away

1.00

creates per match

1.52

0.71

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Nimba Kwado

1.00

Paynesville

1.52

allows per match

Nimba Kwado

0.71

Paynesville

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Paynesville+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba Kwado ↓

Paynesville →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Nimba Kwado or draw

69%

Nimba Kwado or Paynesville

73%

Draw or Paynesville

58%

Winning margin

Nimba Kwado wins by 2+

20%

Paynesville wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nimba Kwado 1+ goals

74%

Nimba Kwado 2+ goals

39%

Nimba Kwado 3+ goals

15%

Paynesville 1+ goals

67%

Paynesville 2+ goals

30%

Paynesville 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)

58%

Paynesville (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba Kwado at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Paynesville away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba Kwado attack 1.00 + Paynesville defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Paynesville attack 1.52 + Nimba Kwado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nimba Kwado scores more

42%

level

27%

Paynesville scores more

31%

Nimba Kwado at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff