Nimba Kwado 0–1 Global Pharma: Result & Stats

Nimba Kwado

FT

0 – 1

Global Pharma

3/24/2024

LFA First Division · Round 23Tomah Seh Floyd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nimba Kwado49%

×Draw28%

Global Pharma23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nimba KwadoExpected goals in this matchGlobal Pharma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.81

Nimba Kwado

1.32

Global Pharma

0.81

Nimba Kwado creates 63% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 26 away

1.00

creates per match

0.92

0.71

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Nimba Kwado

1.00

Global Pharma

0.92

allows per match

Nimba Kwado

0.71

Global Pharma

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nimba Kwado+0.00on par

Global Pharma+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba Kwado ↓

Global Pharma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nimba Kwado or draw

77%

Nimba Kwado or Global Pharma

72%

Draw or Global Pharma

51%

Winning margin

Nimba Kwado wins by 2+

23%

Global Pharma wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nimba Kwado 1+ goals

73%

Nimba Kwado 2+ goals

38%

Nimba Kwado 3+ goals

15%

Global Pharma 1+ goals

56%

Global Pharma 2+ goals

19%

Global Pharma 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)

68%

Global Pharma (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba Kwado at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Global Pharma away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba Kwado attack 1.00 + Global Pharma defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

Global Pharma attack 0.92 + Nimba Kwado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Nimba Kwado scores more

49%

level

28%

Global Pharma scores more

23%

Nimba Kwado at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff