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Nimba Kwado vs Freeport — LFA First Division 2020

Nimba Kwado
Nimba Kwado
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Freeport
Freeport
3/19/2023LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 21Tomah Seh Floyd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Nimba Kwado43%
×Draw28%
Freeport29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nimba Kwado
1.31
Freeport
1.01

Nimba Kwado creates 30% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 75 away

creates per match

Nimba Kwado
1.00
Freeport
1.31

allows per match

Nimba Kwado
0.71
Freeport
1.61

finishing

Nimba Kwado+0.00on par
Freeport+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba Kwado ↓

Freeport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nimba Kwado or draw
71%
Nimba Kwado or Freeport
72%
Draw or Freeport
57%

Winning margin

Nimba Kwado wins by 2+
20%
Freeport wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nimba Kwado 1+ goals
73%
Nimba Kwado 2+ goals
38%
Nimba Kwado 3+ goals
14%
Freeport 1+ goals
64%
Freeport 2+ goals
27%
Freeport 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nimba Kwado (draw refunded)
60%
Freeport (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba Kwado at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.71 · 48 matches

Freeport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.61 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba Kwado attack 1.00 + Freeport defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.31

Freeport attack 1.31 + Nimba Kwado defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nimba Kwado scores more
43%
level
28%
Freeport scores more
29%

Nimba Kwado at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nimba Kwado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Nimba Kwado 1–0 Freeport

Nimba Kwado beat Freeport 1-0 in LFA First Division on March 19, 2023.

The match was played at Tomah Seh Floyd Stadium in Sanniquellie.