Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nimba FC vs MC Breweries — LFA First Division 2020

Nimba FC
Nimba FC
FT
0 – 1
MC Breweries
MC Breweries
2/14/2021LFA First DivisionLFA First Division · Round 9Ganta Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nimba FC22%
×Draw26%
MC Breweries52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nimba FC
0.86
MC Breweries
1.48

MC Breweries creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Nimba FC
0.36
MC Breweries
0.77

allows per match

Nimba FC
2.18
MC Breweries
1.36

finishing

Nimba FC+0.00on par
MC Breweries+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nimba FC ↓

MC Breweries →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nimba FC or draw
48%
Nimba FC or MC Breweries
74%
Draw or MC Breweries
78%

Winning margin

Nimba FC wins by 2+
7%
MC Breweries wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Nimba FC 1+ goals
58%
Nimba FC 2+ goals
21%
Nimba FC 3+ goals
6%
MC Breweries 1+ goals
77%
MC Breweries 2+ goals
43%
MC Breweries 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nimba FC (draw refunded)
30%
MC Breweries (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nimba FC at home — creates 0.36, concedes 2.18 · 11 matches

MC Breweries away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nimba FC attack 0.36 + MC Breweries defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 0.86

MC Breweries attack 0.77 + Nimba FC defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nimba FC scores more
22%
level
26%
MC Breweries scores more
52%

MC Breweries at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "MC Breweries will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

LFA First Division: Nimba FC 0–1 MC Breweries

MC Breweries beat Nimba FC 1-0 in LFA First Division on February 14, 2021.

The match was played at Ganta Sports Stadium in Ganta.