Niki Volos vs Iraklis 1908 — League #494 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Niki Volos48%
Iraklis 190821%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Niki Volos creates 75% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under72
- Over28
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No66
- Yes34
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Niki Volos ↓
Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Niki Volos at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches
Iraklis 1908 away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Niki Volos attack 1.17 + Iraklis 1908 defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.17
Iraklis 1908 attack 0.67 + Niki Volos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Niki Volos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Niki Volos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Niki Volos substitutes
Iraklis 1908 substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Olympiakos Piraeus II
PAOK II
Kalamata
Kampaniakos Chalastra
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Panionios
Marko
Anagennisi Karditsas
Kavala
IlioupoliIraklis 1908
Makedonikos Neapolis
Asteras Tripolis II
KissamikosNiki Volos
Ellas Syros
Kallithea
PAS Giannina
Panargiakos
EgaleoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Niki Volos host Iraklis 1908 on Saturday, 2 November 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the League #494 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Niki Volos vs Iraklis 1908
Niki Volos beat Iraklis 1908 1-0 in League #494 on November 2, 2024.
Goals: A. Šapovalov (68').
The match was played at Panthessaliko Stadio in Volos.