Iraklis 1908 vs Niki Volos — League #494 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Iraklis 190839%
Niki Volos16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Iraklis 1908 creates 103% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under92
- Over8
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No86
- Yes14
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Iraklis 1908 ↓
Most likely 0–0 (37%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Iraklis 1908 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 6 matches
Niki Volos away — creates 0.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Iraklis 1908 attack 0.67 + Niki Volos defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67
Niki Volos attack 0.33 + Iraklis 1908 defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Iraklis 1908 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Iraklis 1908 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Iraklis 1908 substitutes
Niki Volos substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Olympiakos Piraeus II
PAOK II
Kalamata
Kampaniakos Chalastra
Nestos Chrisoupolis
Panionios
Marko
Anagennisi Karditsas
Kavala
IlioupoliIraklis 1908
Makedonikos Neapolis
Asteras Tripolis II
KissamikosNiki Volos
Ellas Syros
Kallithea
PAS Giannina
Panargiakos
EgaleoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Iraklis 1908 host Niki Volos on Monday, 20 January 2025 at 15:30. The match is part of the League #494 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Iraklis 1908 vs Niki Volos
Iraklis 1908 beat Niki Volos 2-1 in League #494 on January 20, 2025.
Goals: A. Šapovalov (43'), Josete Miranda (58'), G. Sideras (61').
The match was played at Kaftanzoglio Stadio in Thessaloníki.