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Nikarm vs Onor — First League 2019

Nikarm
Nikarm
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Onor
Onor
8/30/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 6Vanadzor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nikarm34%
×Draw19%
Onor47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nikarm
2.17
Onor
2.54

Onor creates 17% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nikarm
0.96
Onor
0.69

allows per match

Nikarm
4.38
Onor
3.38

finishing

Nikarm+0.00on par
Onor+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nikarm ↓

Onor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
68%32%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Nikarm or draw
53%
Nikarm or Onor
81%
Draw or Onor
66%

Winning margin

Nikarm wins by 2+
18%
Onor wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Nikarm 1+ goals
89%
Nikarm 2+ goals
64%
Nikarm 3+ goals
36%
Onor 1+ goals
92%
Onor 2+ goals
72%
Onor 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Nikarm (draw refunded)
42%
Onor (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nikarm at home — creates 0.96, concedes 4.38 · 26 matches

Onor away — creates 0.69, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nikarm attack 0.96 + Onor defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

Onor attack 0.69 + Nikarm defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Nikarm scores more
34%
level
19%
Onor scores more
47%

Onor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Onor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nikarm 0 – 1 Onor

Onor beat Nikarm 1-0 in First League on August 30, 2023.

The match was played at Vanadzor Stadium in Vanadzor.