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Nikarm vs Banants II — First League 2019

Nikarm
Nikarm
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Banants II
Banants II
10/11/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 2Vanadzor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nikarm15%
×Draw15%
Banants II70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nikarm
1.38
Banants II
3.04

Banants II creates 120% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 99 away

creates per match

Nikarm
0.96
Banants II
1.71

allows per match

Nikarm
4.38
Banants II
1.79

finishing

Nikarm+0.00on par
Banants II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nikarm ↓

Banants II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Nikarm or draw
30%
Nikarm or Banants II
85%
Draw or Banants II
85%

Winning margin

Nikarm wins by 2+
6%
Banants II wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Nikarm 1+ goals
75%
Nikarm 2+ goals
40%
Nikarm 3+ goals
16%
Banants II 1+ goals
95%
Banants II 2+ goals
80%
Banants II 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

Nikarm (draw refunded)
18%
Banants II (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nikarm at home — creates 0.96, concedes 4.38 · 26 matches

Banants II away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.79 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nikarm attack 0.96 + Banants II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.38

Banants II attack 1.71 + Nikarm defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Nikarm scores more
15%
level
15%
Banants II scores more
70%

Banants II at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Banants II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nikarm vs Banants II

Banants II beat Nikarm 3-1 in First League on October 11, 2024.

The match was played at Vanadzor Stadium in Vanadzor.