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Nikarm vs Ararat II — First League 2019

Nikarm
Nikarm
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Ararat II
Ararat II
3/29/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 16Vanadzor Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nikarm16%
×Draw16%
Ararat II68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nikarm
1.40
Ararat II
2.96

Ararat II creates 111% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 83 away

creates per match

Nikarm
0.96
Ararat II
1.55

allows per match

Nikarm
4.38
Ararat II
1.84

finishing

Nikarm+0.00on par
Ararat II+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nikarm ↓

Ararat II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
62%38%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Nikarm or draw
32%
Nikarm or Ararat II
84%
Draw or Ararat II
84%

Winning margin

Nikarm wins by 2+
6%
Ararat II wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

Nikarm 1+ goals
75%
Nikarm 2+ goals
41%
Nikarm 3+ goals
17%
Ararat II 1+ goals
95%
Ararat II 2+ goals
79%
Ararat II 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

Nikarm (draw refunded)
19%
Ararat II (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nikarm at home — creates 0.96, concedes 4.38 · 26 matches

Ararat II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.84 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nikarm attack 0.96 + Ararat II defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.40

Ararat II attack 1.55 + Nikarm defence 4.38 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Nikarm scores more
16%
level
16%
Ararat II scores more
68%

Ararat II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ararat II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Nikarm 2–4 Ararat II

Ararat II beat Nikarm 4-2 in First League on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Vanadzor Stadium in Vanadzor.