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Nigeria W vs Algeria W — Friendlies Women 2026

Nigeria W
Nigeria W
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Algeria W
Algeria W
F. Ijamilusi 86', 18', 10'
G. Monday 45+1'
O. Alouache 41'
10/29/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Nigeria W72%
×Draw17%
Algeria W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nigeria W
2.45
Algeria W
0.86

Nigeria W creates 185% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

creates per match

Nigeria W
2.90
Algeria W
1.33

allows per match

Nigeria W
0.40
Algeria W
2.00

finishing

Nigeria W+0.00on par
Algeria W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nigeria W ↓

Algeria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nigeria W or draw
89%
Nigeria W or Algeria W
83%
Draw or Algeria W
28%

Winning margin

Nigeria W wins by 2+
49%
Algeria W wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Nigeria W 1+ goals
91%
Nigeria W 2+ goals
70%
Nigeria W 3+ goals
44%
Algeria W 1+ goals
58%
Algeria W 2+ goals
21%
Algeria W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nigeria W (draw refunded)
86%
Algeria W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nigeria W at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Algeria W away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nigeria W attack 2.90 + Algeria W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.45

Algeria W attack 1.33 + Nigeria W defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Nigeria W scores more
72%
level
17%
Algeria W scores more
11%

Nigeria W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Nigeria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
F. Ijamilusi
18'
F. Ijamilusi
37'
L. BoussahaMissed penalty
39'
O. Alouache← O. Alouache
41'
O. Alouache
45+1'
G. Monday
46'
C. Olise← C. Olise
61'
A. Odoma← A. Odoma
72'
G. Monday← J. Akekoromowei
74'
H. Boubezari← H. Boubezari
86'
86'
F. Ijamilusi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Nigeria W 4–1 Algeria W

Nigeria W beat Algeria W 4-1 in Friendlies Women on October 29, 2024.

Goals: F. Ijamilusi (10', 18', 86'), O. Alouache (41'), G. Monday (45+1').

The match was played at Mobolaji Johnson Arena in Lagos.