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Nigeria vs Guinea — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Nigeria
Nigeria
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guinea
Guinea
6/26/2019Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 2Alexandria Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nigeria53%
×Draw26%
Guinea21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nigeria
1.53
Guinea
0.86

Nigeria creates 78% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nigeria
1.88
Guinea
0.91

allows per match

Nigeria
0.82
Guinea
1.18

finishing

Nigeria+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nigeria ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nigeria or draw
79%
Nigeria or Guinea
74%
Draw or Guinea
47%

Winning margin

Nigeria wins by 2+
27%
Guinea wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nigeria 1+ goals
78%
Nigeria 2+ goals
45%
Nigeria 3+ goals
20%
Guinea 1+ goals
58%
Guinea 2+ goals
21%
Guinea 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nigeria (draw refunded)
71%
Guinea (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nigeria at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nigeria attack 1.88 + Guinea defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.53

Guinea attack 0.91 + Nigeria defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nigeria scores more
53%
level
26%
Guinea scores more
21%

Nigeria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nigeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Africa Cup of Nations: Nigeria 1–0 Guinea

Nigeria beat Guinea 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on June 26, 2019.

The match was played at Alexandria Stadium in Alexandria.