Nigeria 1–1 Equatorial Guinea: Result & Stats

Nigeria

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Equatorial Guinea

1/14/2024

Africa Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 1Stade Olympique Alassane Ouattara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Nigeria53%

×Draw25%

Equatorial Guinea22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NigeriaExpected goals in this matchEquatorial Guinea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.97

Nigeria

1.63

Equatorial Guinea

0.97

Nigeria creates 68% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 8 away

1.88

creates per match

1.13

0.82

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Nigeria

1.88

Equatorial Guinea

1.13

allows per match

Nigeria

0.82

Equatorial Guinea

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nigeria+0.00on par

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nigeria ↓

Equatorial Guinea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Nigeria or draw

78%

Nigeria or Equatorial Guinea

75%

Draw or Equatorial Guinea

47%

Winning margin

Nigeria wins by 2+

28%

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nigeria 1+ goals

80%

Nigeria 2+ goals

48%

Nigeria 3+ goals

22%

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals

62%

Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals

25%

Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nigeria (draw refunded)

70%

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nigeria at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Equatorial Guinea away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nigeria attack 1.88 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.63

Equatorial Guinea attack 1.13 + Nigeria defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nigeria scores more

53%

level

25%

Equatorial Guinea scores more

22%

Nigeria at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nigeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff