Nigeria 1–0 Angola: Result & Stats

Nigeria

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Angola

2/2/2024

Africa Cup of Nations · Quarter-finalsStade Félix Houphouët-Boigny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nigeria54%

×Draw26%

Angola21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NigeriaExpected goals in this matchAngola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.85

Nigeria

1.55

Angola

0.85

Nigeria creates 82% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

1.88

creates per match

0.89

0.82

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Nigeria

1.88

Angola

0.89

allows per match

Nigeria

0.82

Angola

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nigeria+0.00on par

Angola+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nigeria ↓

Angola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nigeria or draw

79%

Nigeria or Angola

74%

Draw or Angola

46%

Winning margin

Nigeria wins by 2+

28%

Angola wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nigeria 1+ goals

79%

Nigeria 2+ goals

46%

Nigeria 3+ goals

20%

Angola 1+ goals

57%

Angola 2+ goals

21%

Angola 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nigeria (draw refunded)

72%

Angola (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nigeria at home — creates 1.88, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Angola away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nigeria attack 1.88 + Angola defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.55

Angola attack 0.89 + Nigeria defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nigeria scores more

54%

level

26%

Angola scores more

21%

Nigeria at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nigeria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff