Niger 1–1 Zimbabwe: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Niger

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zimbabwe

V. Adebayor 69' (pen)

G. Takwara 9'

6/10/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Pere-Jego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Niger34%

×Draw30%

Zimbabwe36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NigerExpected goals in this matchZimbabwe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.08

Niger

1.05

Zimbabwe

1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

0.91

creates per match

0.90

1.27

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Niger

0.91

Zimbabwe

0.90

allows per match

Niger

1.27

Zimbabwe

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niger+0.00on par

Zimbabwe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger ↓

Zimbabwe →

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Niger or draw

64%

Niger or Zimbabwe

70%

Draw or Zimbabwe

66%

Winning margin

Niger wins by 2+

13%

Zimbabwe wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Niger 1+ goals

65%

Niger 2+ goals

28%

Niger 3+ goals

Zimbabwe 1+ goals

66%

Zimbabwe 2+ goals

29%

Zimbabwe 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Niger (draw refunded)

49%

Zimbabwe (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Niger at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Zimbabwe away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Niger attack 0.91 + Zimbabwe defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Zimbabwe attack 0.90 + Niger defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Niger scores more

34%

level

30%

Zimbabwe scores more

36%

Zimbabwe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Zimbabwe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

G. Takwara

69'

V. AdebayorPenalty

Niger

Zimbabwe

⚽

⚽

Manager: Doula Gabde Harouna

Niger substitutes

16Abiboulaye1Kahar21Hassane17Goumey4Boueye5Lebne8Ibrahim9Ali23Waddou20Adamou

Zimbabwe substitutes

TavazivaMurwiraDzvukamanjaBilliatMudadiMsendamiMushoreArubiMsebeMusonaMuduhwa