Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Niger vs Mauritania — Friendlies 2026

Niger
Niger
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mauritania
Mauritania
I. Thiam 90' (pen)
6/8/2026FriendliesFriendlies · Friendly InternationalStade Pere-Jego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Niger42%
×Draw30%
Mauritania28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger
1.17
Mauritania
0.89

Niger creates 31% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Niger
0.91
Mauritania
0.50

allows per match

Niger
1.27
Mauritania
1.43

finishing

Niger+0.00on par
Mauritania+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger ↓

Mauritania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Niger or draw
72%
Niger or Mauritania
70%
Draw or Mauritania
58%

Winning margin

Niger wins by 2+
18%
Mauritania wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Niger 1+ goals
69%
Niger 2+ goals
33%
Niger 3+ goals
11%
Mauritania 1+ goals
59%
Mauritania 2+ goals
22%
Mauritania 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Niger (draw refunded)
60%
Mauritania (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Mauritania away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger attack 0.91 + Mauritania defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mauritania attack 0.50 + Niger defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Niger scores more
42%
level
30%
Mauritania scores more
28%

Niger at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Niger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
I. ThiamPenalty
Niger
Mauritania
Ezzaiki Badou
Manager: Ezzaiki Badou
Aritz Lopez
Manager: Aritz Lopez

Match Recap: Niger vs Mauritania

Mauritania beat Niger 1-0 in Friendlies on June 8, 2026.

Goals: I. Thiam (90' pen).

The match was played at Stade Pere-Jego in Casablanca.