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Niger Tornadoes vs Rivers United — NPFL 2019

Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rivers United
Rivers United
10/21/2024NPFLNPFL · Round 8Bako Kontagora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Niger Tornadoes51%
×Draw30%
Rivers United19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Niger Tornadoes
1.23
Rivers United
0.62

Niger Tornadoes creates 98% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 130 away

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes
1.24
Rivers United
0.72

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes
0.52
Rivers United
1.22

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par
Rivers United+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Rivers United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw
81%
Niger Tornadoes or Rivers United
70%
Draw or Rivers United
49%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+
23%
Rivers United wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals
71%
Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals
35%
Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals
13%
Rivers United 1+ goals
46%
Rivers United 2+ goals
13%
Rivers United 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)
73%
Rivers United (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Rivers United away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Rivers United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.23

Rivers United attack 0.72 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more
51%
level
30%
Rivers United scores more
19%

Niger Tornadoes at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NPFL: Niger Tornadoes 0–1 Rivers United

Rivers United beat Niger Tornadoes 1-0 in NPFL on October 21, 2024.

The match was played at Bako Kontagora Stadium in Minna.