Niger Tornadoes 1–0 Remo Stars: Result & Stats

Niger Tornadoes

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Remo Stars

11/29/2025

NPFL · Round 15Bako Kontagora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Niger Tornadoes53%

×Draw28%

Remo Stars18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Niger TornadoesExpected goals in this matchRemo Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.65

Niger Tornadoes

1.34

Remo Stars

0.65

Niger Tornadoes creates 106% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 99 away

1.24

creates per match

0.78

0.52

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Niger Tornadoes

1.24

Remo Stars

0.78

allows per match

Niger Tornadoes

0.52

Remo Stars

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Niger Tornadoes+0.00on par

Remo Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Niger Tornadoes ↓

Remo Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Niger Tornadoes or draw

82%

Niger Tornadoes or Remo Stars

72%

Draw or Remo Stars

47%

Winning margin

Niger Tornadoes wins by 2+

26%

Remo Stars wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Niger Tornadoes 1+ goals

74%

Niger Tornadoes 2+ goals

39%

Niger Tornadoes 3+ goals

15%

Remo Stars 1+ goals

48%

Remo Stars 2+ goals

14%

Remo Stars 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Niger Tornadoes (draw refunded)

75%

Remo Stars (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Niger Tornadoes at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.52 · 96 matches

Remo Stars away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.44 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Niger Tornadoes attack 1.24 + Remo Stars defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Remo Stars attack 0.78 + Niger Tornadoes defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Niger Tornadoes scores more

53%

level

28%

Remo Stars scores more

18%

Niger Tornadoes at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Niger Tornadoes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff